94 may not react immediately to the international ruling, the growing international pressure could strengthen incentives to move past the impasse. With Brexit, the UK needs more friends than enemies while renegotiating all trade arrangements. Proposed Framework of a Solution As this historic dispute is nearing two centuries, now may be an opportune moment to determine a mutually beneficial solution. Considering Argentina’s history of using the Islands for political manipulation together with the reality of UK control, Argentina should initiate negotiations toward resolving the dispute (Carroll, 2012). Argentina should come ready to drop sovereignty claims in exchange for a bilateral agreement. Argentina would benefit through economic growth, investment, and expanded markets and indirectly by increased international respect. As noted earlier, when Argentina put foreign relations ahead of the Islands, the country’s GDP nearly doubled in just one year (1989–1990) (World Bank, 2021). Under UNCLOS, PSNR, and GA Resolution 31/49, both countries have legitimate claims in international law over the Islands’ EEZ and natural resources. According to this international legislation, both countries are to reap these benefits via bilateral agreement (Ruzza, 2011). The volatility of the value of the natural resources found in the Islands’ EEZ, the trade renegotiations triggered by Brexit combined with the EU-Mercosur trade agreement, and the international pressure via the UN create a unique confluence of incentives on both sides. As mentioned, a bilateral agreement known as the Joint Declaration was enacted in 1995, its too-restrictive geography leading to failure (Ruzza, 2011). A new bilateral agreement should include hydrocarbon coexploration in the Islands’ entire EEZ, meaning Sea Lion or similar future investment initiatives would become joint ventures between UK and Argentine interests. Recently, a principal investor in Sea Lion has withdrawn, so new risk sharing partners might make infrastructure development viable again. Argentina could facilitate that under a new Joint Declaration. By co-exploring the EEZ, Argentina would reap economic benefits participating in the hydrocarbon industry, while the UK would mitigate risks from this unpredictable market (Hurst, 2020). Agreeing to share the Islands’ hydrocarbon resources more equitably, Argentina would then agree to exclude the fishing industry as a natural resource that should be co-exploited. In return, the UK would allow Argentina to be the middleman. By importing all fishing-related products through Argentina to the EU, the Islands will benefit from the reduced tariffs of the EU-Mercosur trade agreement (European Commission, 2019a). Argentina will benefit by charging (lower) tariffs on these products. The UK will benefit by eliminating the issue of excluding the Islands in Brexit renegotiations and limiting potential damage to their overseas territory’s largest industry (Cavallone, 2021). Additionally, Argentina would cease efforts to bring this case to the UN’s International Court of Justice, which likely would decide in favor of Argentine sovereignty over the Islands. Argentina must see this concession as a win, for, even if they were to win in court, the MauritiusChagos Archipelago case suggests the UK would refuse to act on the ruling (Bowcott, 2019). The geopolitical and economic conditions arising from the oil industry volatility, Brexit combined with the EU-Mercosur agreement, and shifting international norms on colonial legacies are optimal for warming bilateral ties and bringing this sovereignty dispute to an end. An arrangement along the lines suggested would be an extraordinary deal for the UK, neutralizing the nearly 200-year-old state of controversy in international opinion. With this solution, the UK should in turn demonstrate gratitude for Argentina’s sacrifices when fleshing out all other post-Brexit terms of trade between the two countries. Through such a compromise, Argentina and the UK can open a new chapter of mutually beneficial growth.
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