93 and the Association of Overseas Countries and Territories of the European Union (European Commission, 2019b). When the UK left the EU, so did its territories, losing all trade and tariff benefits they originally held (Walker, 2021). The new EU-UK trade agreement, as of December 31, 2020, omits the territories (Taglioni, 2020). The Islands’ economy heavily relies on the fishing industry, comprising over 40% of the Islands’ GDP and up to 64% of government revenue (Cavallone, 2021). When the Islands were a part of the EU through the UK, they were free of EU tariffs and quotas. They now face 6% to 18% tariffs on seafood. These tariffs could significantly harm the Islands’ trade and economy (Goñi, 2019). The Islands’ government ensured the UK understood their concerns throughout the EU-UK negotiation period; however, the UK did not pursue those concerns and failed to establish any trade terms for the Islands (Taglioni, 2020). Being left out of the negotiations could signal that the UK does not necessarily have the Islands’ best interests in mind and that the EU does not see them as a true UK territory but instead a disputed territory. Simultaneously with the UK-EU negotiations, Argentina, as part of Mercosur, a South American trading bloc, was also in talks confirming a landmark agreement with the EU in 2019 (European Commission, 2019a). In February 2021, during its rotational turn as President of Mercosur, Argentina publicly vowed to push ratifying the Mercosur-EU agreement. The deal must pass through the European Parliament and the congresses of each Mercosur country. Additionally, the agreement could be implemented independently between the EU and each Mercosur country individually (Resende, 2021). While not yet fully ratified, once it is, this arrangement will open a realm of possibilities. The agreement eliminates import duties on 92% of Mercosur goods being imported into the EU (European Commission, 2019a). This setup creates potential for Argentina as middleman between the Islands and EU for the fishing industry. Argentina would offer the Islands lower tariffs than the EU’s. Through the Mercosur-EU trade agreement, Argentina would export to the EU with little to no import duties products originally coming from the Islands. By proposing this trade deal, Argentina creates an indirect line to the UK, bringing the two countries to the negotiating table through a mutually beneficial opportunity. Argentina benefits from the Islands’ fishing industry, and the UK eliminates an issue spawned from Brexit. International Recognition of the Dispute With the UK departure, the EU has attained leverage relating to the territories. Specifically, the EU could be a key player in forcing the UK’s hand in agreeing to a joint tariff elimination scheme with Argentina for the Islands’ fishing industry. The EU has already demonstrated their stance on the UK’s power over their overseas territories by not including the territories in the Brexit talks (Walker, 2021). Argentina played a part in ensuring the Islands’ exclusion; Felipe Solá, the Minister of Foreign Affairs and then provisional president of Mercosur, expressed Argentina’s concerns about including the Islands in the renegotiations and considering them a disputed territory. Argentina sees the post-Brexit negotiations as a potential wedge issue, opening diplomatic distance between the Islands and the UK. At the same time, as they hold the rotating leadership of Mercosur, Argentina can use the ratification of the Mercosur-EU trade deal as an opportunity to continue to press the EU to consider the Islands a disputed area (Taglioni, 2020). When the UK had one foot out the door of the EU in May of 2019, the UN was overseeing a comparable sovereignty case. Mauritius claims sovereignty over the British overseas territory Chagos Archipelago. At the UN, through the International Court of Justice, the world voted 166 to 6 against the UK’s sovereignty. It determined the UK had six months to return the islands of the Chagos Archipelago to Mauritius. Despite the trial and outcome, the UK saw this ruling as an “advisory opinion, not a judgment” (Bowcott, 2019). The dispute parallels the Argentina-UK case. Argentina has not yet been able to get to the International Court of Justice to vote on its sovereignty claim but hopes to soon given the similarities (United Nations, 2019). Even though the UK
RkJQdWJsaXNoZXIy MTA0OTQ5OA==