21 emissions per person-year, ability to pay, their carbon dioxide (CO2) removal shares based on anticipated 2030 emission levels, and others (Fyson et al., 2020). However, projections estimate that in 2030 Argentina will be contributing between 1.44% and 3.6%, even if it reaches its NDCs (Keesler et al., 2019). To be in line with its unconditional and conditional NDCs, Argentina must produce no more than 483 metric tons of CO2 equivalent (MtCO2e) unconditionally and 369 MtCO2e conditionally in 2030. These numbers are lowered when including land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF) activities. LULUCF takes into account GHG “sinks” (i.e., ecosystems that can reduce the amount of GHGs being emitted into the atmosphere as well as carbon that has been stored in trees and other life) (United Nations, 2018). Reducing primary forests through logging or unsustainable management can result in greater GHG emissions and lower the ability to mitigate carbon emissions in the future. Argentina’s unconditional and conditional NDCs are to produce no more than 422 MtCO2e and 322 MtCO2e by 2030. Projections done by the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) put Argentina in the Critically Insufficient category. Argentina’s goals of 422 MtCO2e and 322 MtCO2e will not be met, with current projections putting them at approximately 430 MtCO2e and 370 MtCO2e, respectively (CAT, 2020). Their targets are not incompatible with these projections; the reason they have been labeled Critically Insufficient is that their commitments are not in line with their fair share of carbon emissions. These ratings range from the Role Model category (1.5°C Paris Agreement Compatible) to Critically Insufficient, the worst category. The Critically Insufficient rating means that Argentina’s rating corresponds to a greater than 4°C global temperature rise. CAT estimates that by 2030 Argentina would need to produce no more than 207 MtCO2e to comply with the Paris Agreement goal of a rise in global temperature less than 1.5°C.1 To address how best to reduce Argentina’s emissions, it is critical to understand their 1CAT’s algorithms and methods for projecting these numbers are not publicly available. sources. Electricity production is by far the largest source of GHG emissions, producing approximately 38% of the total in 2014, followed by transportation at 24%, industry at 16%, and residential buildings, commercial, and public services at 15% (World Bank, 2014). Fortunately, Argentina has a robust combination of renewable energy sources, which can be utilized in the electricity production sector. Electricity Generation in Argentina Argentina had a goal of reaching 8% of all electricity to be produced by non-hydropower renewables by 2017. This target was not reached by the end of 2017, as renewable energy production was at only 3.8% (KPMG, 2019). However, there has been significant growth in renewables, with $1.7B invested in both 2016 and 2017, which resulted in an increase of 680 MW of total installed power. In 2019, Argentina’s electricity generation was made up largely of fossil fuels, with 90 million MWh out of the 132 million MWh total, or approximately two-thirds, produced primarily through natural gas. Nuclear power produced 7.9 million MWh, representing a little over 5%. The remaining were renewables, which consisted of hydroelectricity (21%), solar (1%), wind (4%), and biomass (1%) (US EIA, 2020a). Argentina’s current target is to reach 20% of its electricity being produced through nonhydro renewable methods by 2025 set by Law 27,191 (Argentine Republic, 2015). These increases have been important but still insufficient to reach their 2025 target. Understanding the future of traditional sources of power generation—nuclear and fossil—will be critical in creating an evolving generation mix that increasingly favors renewables in order to meet that goal. Nuclear Power When considering ways to reduce Argentina’s GHGs, it is important to not overlook the role of nuclear power. Argentina has had nuclear power since 1974 and currently has three commercial plants, which account for 1800 MW of installed capacity, generating approximately 5% of the country’s electricity (International Atomic Energy Agency, 2020).
RkJQdWJsaXNoZXIy MTA0OTQ5OA==