81 MARTINDALE CENTER FOR THE STUDY OF PRIVATE ENTERPRISE 2024). The uptick in emissions was driven largely by increases in the rate of electricity consumption, which has grown by a staggering 7% annually since 2002, thanks to a combination of increased rural electricity access, population growth, and increased per capita energy consumption. As a result, the phaseout of fossil fuels from the power sector has been delayed. Rather than replacing existing fossil fuel power generation, Morocco’s renewables installations have so far mostly served to supplement it. Current global economic trends may exacerbate this issue. According to Goldman Sachs (2024), the artificial intelligence development boom is projected to drive a 160% global increase in the amount of electricity consumed by data centers by 2030. Morocco, as a potential data center hub, is likely to be affected by this trend. In 2024, the US startup Iozera announced it would build a $500M data center at Tétouan that will rank among the world’s largest, with a hefty 386 MW of electricity consumption (Gooding, 2024). Additionally, Morocco exports electricity to Europe, where data centers are expected to spur a 50% jump in total power usage by 2032 (Goldman Sachs, 2024). Major further increases in renewable power generation will be required to help accommodate this increased electricity demand, if Morocco wants to stay on track with its decarbonization goals. An expected increase in the supply of natural gas, which currently makes up approximately 18% of Morocco’s electricity mix, is also likely to slow Morocco’s phaseout of fossil fuels (International Trade Administration, 2024). The Moroccan government recently unveiled plans to expand the country’s infrastructure for natural gas transmission and also has begun to allow offshore gas exploration, which has resulted in the discovery of several new reserves (Redondo, 2023). Additionally, a 12-year deal signed with Shell in 2023 will continue to supply Morocco with European gas through the Maghreb–Europe Gas Pipeline while it develops its domestic production capacity (Eljechtimi, 2023). Although natural gas is a lower-emissions energy source than coal or oil and will help Morocco phase out its reliance on these fuels, it is far from carbon neutral. The government’s decision to embrace natural gas is a pragmatic one that will help feed the country’s growing demand for power and increase its energy independence but is somewhat problematic from an emissions perspective and may slow the transition to renewables. The basic growth–pollution tradeoff facing Morocco seems unlikely to be resolved in the near future. According to a recent modeling analysis by Kharbak & Chfadi (2022), the economic targets set by Morocco’s current national plan for sustainable development will lead to more emissions by 2035 than can be offset by following through on the unconditional commitments outlined in the country’s most recent NDC. In other words, rapid economic growth threatens to drive up emissions at a pace that negates Morocco’s planned greening actions, leading to net positive emissions. Avoiding this outcome will require an aggressive expansion of Morocco’s decarbonization plan, including substantial increases in new renewable energy capacity installation. Morocco’s technical roadmap to decarbonization Morocco’s stated plan to continue reducing carbon emissions in the electric generation sector is centered on a crucial, but long-term, process of increasing the share of renewable source generation capacity. Beyond continuing to develop domestic renewable capacity and beginning to phase out fossil fuels, there are two additional opportunities for change that Morocco intends to leverage as it seeks to reach its carbon reduction goals—exploration of nuclear power and upgrades to the national power grid. Increasing the share of renewable energy in the electricity mix The most essential decarbonization action outlined in Morocco’s 2021 NDC is increasing the share of renewables in the national electricity mix to 52% of total installed generation capacity by 2030. Of this 52%, 12% would come from hydropower, 20% from solar, and 20% from wind (El Hafdaoui et al., 2024). To accomplish this goal, major investments in renewable power generation capacity need to occur. These must be accompanied by a phaseout of fossil fuels, which Morocco plans to pursue starting with the most carbon-intensive fuel, coal. At the 2023 COP28 held in Dubai, Morocco announced that it had joined the Powering Past Coal Alliance, a group of more than 60 nations committed to phasing out coal as an energy source (Eljechtimi, 2024), and in its Plan d’Equipment Electrique 2023–2027, the country outlined mechanisms for decreasing the contribution of coal to the energy mix. These include a mandate that new power plants only use natural gas and a plan for converting two existing coal plants to use natural gas by 2027 (International Monetary Fund [IMF], October 27, 2023). Given Morocco’s current heavy reliance on coal for electricity generation, phasing out its usage will not be a quick process but can significantly reduce national emissions once accomplished.
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