39 MARTINDALE CENTER FOR THE STUDY OF PRIVATE ENTERPRISE in water supply, Morocco’s GDP will experience a permanent devaluation of 3%, equating to $6.14M annually. In conjunction with a baseline 3% decrease, the Moroccan GDP endures additional losses as a function of climate change–induced transitions to new, non-rainfed, crops in the agricultural sector. The added cost from shifts in crops worsens GDP devaluation, inflicting an additional quarter million dollars of annual losses. When large droughts occur, temporary devaluation may also occur when limited production causes price increases and shocks across the economy (Taheripour et al., 2020). Coincident with causing declines in the Moroccan GDP, significant impacts are identified across the country’s labor markets. Historically, Morocco has experienced high unemployment levels for multiple decades, maintaining a rate around two times that of the global average (World Bank Open Data, n.d.-a; n.d.-b). Demand decreases for unskilled and skilled labor are expected to intensify as a function of water scarcity challenges. At the 15% water supply reduction rate, it is predicted the country’s overall economic demand for unskilled and skilled labor will decrease by 3.4% and 3.0%, respectively. If the transition to non-rainfed crops is considered, the declines in overall labor demand would deepen, lowering by 5.2% in unskilled and 4.7% in skilled markets (Taheripour et al., 2020). Although the presence of water scarcity generally affects all sectors of the Moroccan economy, the country’s agricultural economy largely dictates water scarcity’s magnitude of economic influence. Temporary and permanent water supply reductions restrict farm production capacities and induce price shocks beginning at the base of a supply chain. Constraints on crop production limits accessibility to crops as an input for other goods and services. Thus, when the water supply is reduced by 25%, the Moroccan agricultural economy’s contribution to the national GDP is predicted to fall from 13% to 11.75%. This decrease in economic share also translates into concentrated unemployment rate rises for the almost 40% of Morocco’s population working in agriculture. While the previously mentioned declines in labor demand for the general Moroccan economy were found to be around 5%, the demand for labor directly related to agricultural activities, primarily in the unskilled market, is predicted to see a deeper decline, of 7.8% (Taheripour et al., 2020). Implementing policy Recognizing the problems associated with increasing water scarcity, Morocco has implemented initiatives designed to boost its agricultural economy. During the early 2000s, the government introduced the Green Morocco Plan to increase and diversify agricultural exports, with an eye toward expanding Moroccan influence internationally. The plan called for a transition away from traditional to drip irrigation incentivized by subsidies on water costs (Oxford Business Group, 2020). Despite the seemingly positive goals set in place with the Green Morocco Plan, it ultimately created new challenges due to uneven distribution of investment and missed environmental objectives. To address these, the Moroccan government instituted Generation Green 2020-2030, to prioritize the influence of agricultural solutions on Moroccan quality of life over the benefits of economic expansion. The multifaceted, complex plan comprises two sections intended to resolve both the environmental and the agricultural challenges, yet water scarcity and reform are acknowledged in but a single discussion point, falling secondary to maintaining agricultural economic goals (Ministry of Agriculture…, n.d.). To expand the agricultural sector, water scarcity must be addressed, given consumption rates (80% of the 11B–15B m3 consumed annually) (Hill & Pimentel, 2022; Taheripour et al., 2020). In 2020, Morocco supplemented Generation Green 2020-2030 with the National Water Plan and the National Priority Program for Drinking Water and Irrigation to address the lack of water scarcity solutions. Through these programs, the country intends to install a range of infrastructural solutions aimed at progressively increasing water supply, including dams, groundwater location studies, wastewater recycling, rural potable water centers, and interbasin water transfer projects (International Trade Administration, 2022). However, the focal point of the country’s water scarcity plans has been constructing seawater desalination plants (Hooper, 2023; Magoum, 2023). The desalination of water Processes at desalination plants include pre- and post-treatment steps commonly used for water treatment while introducing an additional, more intensive process to remove dissolved particles found in saltwater and brackish water. Initially, the actual desalination process was completed by applying distillation mechanisms to the overall process, with heating and cooling cycles separating salt particles from water vapor. In recent years, however, technological developments have increased affordability of membrane technology methods, such as reverse osmosis. Such methods pump the saline water through
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