80 PERSPECTIVES ON BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS | VOL 44 | 2026 Figure 1 Impact of tourism on GDP in CEE countries, 2023 Croatia Slovenia Estonia Latvia Hungary Bulgaria Romania Czechia Lithuania Slovakia Poland Tourism contribution to GDP (%) 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Source: Share of Travel and Tourism…, 2025. Croatia’s dependence on tourism is also risky because it increases the economy’s vulnerability to both discrete and continuous shocks (Mikulić et al., 2023). Discrete threats are less likely but potentially more damaging. Even though the tourism industry helped Croatia weather the COVID-19 pandemic better than other nations, it earned just 50% of expected revenue for 2020 (Mikac & Kravarščan, 2021; Mikulić et al., 2023). Other examples of discrete threats are terrorist attacks, political uprisings, and war. Continuous threats include environmental degradation, regional tensions, and economic downturns (Mikac & Kravarščan, 2021). Additionally, over 80% of tourist activity falls between June and September (Miftari, 2023), amplifying such risks. A single poor tourist season can disproportionately affect Croatia’s annual economic productivity. By failing to mitigate the long-term effects of overtourism, the industry is contributing to its own potential downfall. Overtourism in Croatia has caused environmental damage in the Adriatic region, particularly due to the high concentration of accommodations and attractions (Miftari, 2023). Overtourism has also spiked housing costs, one of the drivers of Croatians leaving the country (Pavić et al., 2025). Shortterm tourist rentals are more profitable than long-term leases or families buying them to live, so those potential tourism-driven profits are driving up housing costs and pushing out residents (Vizek et al., 2022). Finally, political instability in the region, such as the Russo-Ukrainian conflict, could deter visitors (Mikac & Kravarščan, 2021). These vulnerabilities underscore the importance of diversifying beyond tourism so that Croatia can maintain competitiveness and resilience in an increasingly STEM-oriented global marketplace. Brain drain in Croatia According to UNESCO UNEVOC, brain drain is “the emigration of qualified people whose skills are scarce in their place of origin” (UNESCO, n.d.-a). Croatia has had a net negative migration rate since 2010, losing more people than it gains each year (Hornstein Tomic & Taylor, 2018; Zdrilic & Sokolic, 2022). Brain drain affects other Balkan nations, but Croatia’s case is perhaps the most severe because EU membership allows citizens to move freely cross borders (Jansen et al., 2024). Many leave in search of higher salaries, better housing, and improved quality of life (Pavić et al., 2025): An estimated 10% of Croatia’s population has emigrated following EU membership in 2013 (Jansen et al., 2024). Working-age Croatians are significantly more likely to emigrate than older Croatians (Zdrilic & Sokolic, 2022), translating to approximately 18% of Croatian students with tertiary education leaving (World Bank, 2024). Specifically, Croatian students believe that the countries they eventually emigrate to have better recruitment strategies and more opportunities for high-level training and career development (Bosnjak Kuharic et al., 2023).
RkJQdWJsaXNoZXIy MTA0OTQ5OA==