52 PERSPECTIVES ON BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS | VOL 44 | 2026 Temporal tensions in Croatia’s migration policies Elizabeth M. Wolfe Following its accession to the EU, Croatia experienced increases in emigration and immigration. These led to short-term policies that lacked lasting considerations for migration to Croatia. Recently, national demographic strategies were developed that outlined the country’s plan for migration going forward. These policies provide the opportunity for Croatia to position itself as a long-term destination rather than utilizing migration solely as a solution to structural labor market concerns. Introduction Since EU accession, Croatia has undergone a demographic shift related to a variety of factors, including an aging population, lower fertility rates, and increasing emigration. Although these influences all play a role in population change, the nature of immigration and emigration has important labor market implications. Croatia has responded with plans to make both diaspora and migration policies parts of a national long-term demographic strategy. This plan has yet to be fully implemented and comes a decade after the expiration of a previous migration strategy. As a result, Croatia has been relying on targeted but largely short-term policies for return migration and work-related immigration. Croatia’s diaspora policy is regarded as well developed (OECD, 2025), and the recent demographic strategy seeks to build on it. In contrast, policy for work-related immigration outside of the Croatian diaspora is largely focused on immediate gaps in the labor market, with a lack of emphasis on a lasting stay. To build a lasting migration strategy, the government can strengthen policies that incentivize reverse migration, but it can also invest in integrating immigrants from outside of the Croatian diaspora, which would require removing barriers to temporary work as well as promoting integration on a national level. This is key to ensuring Croatia can achieve labor market goals through migration and making the country a place where people want to live. Recent demographic changes In recent years, Croatia has experienced changes in the size and age distribution of its population. Low fertility rates and net outward migration have reduced the country’s population (OECD, 2024b). When Croatia joined the EU in 2013, its population was 4.23 million but fell to 3.87 million by 2024 (World Bank Group, n.d.-d). The country’s median age has increased from 42.8 to 45.4 from 2014 to 2024 (Eurostat, 2024). Additionally, the ratio of dependents older than 65 to the working-age population, 15–65, rose from 28% to 37% from 2013 to 2024 (World Bank Group, n.d.-a). These trends demonstrate that the demographic changes are not driven by an isolated issue; rather, they are broader concerns that warrant strategic thinking. Migration trends Croatia recorded negative net migration since 2010, but that pattern reversed in 2022, with approximately 11,681 more people immigrating than emigrating (World Bank Group, n.d.-c). Figure 1 shows emigration and immigration trends. Emigration rose from 2014 to 2017 and has remained relatively flat since, while immigration has increased every year since 2014 (except 2020) (Eurostat, 2022a, 2022b ). Most emigrants from Croatia, an estimated 395,000 of more than 428,000 in total from 2013 to 2024, went to EU member states and other European countries; Germany specifically received the most Croatian emigrants, more than 171,000 during this period. Upon joining the EU, Croatia gained the right of free movement, which allows EU citizens to live, study, work, and retire in any of the EU states (European Commission, n.d.; European Parliament, 2018). Free movement has been shown to be the most significant factor explaining emigration between new EU member states and core EU countries (Draženović et al., 2018). In 2022, Croatia had the fifth lowest national median gross hourly earnings in the EU by purchasing power standoi:10.18275/pbe-v044-008
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