100 PERSPECTIVES ON BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS | VOL 44 | 2026 To translate the estimated price effect into welfare terms, the counterfactual price path is calculated by removing the estimated treatment effect from observed log prices, then exponentiating to recover price levels. Welfare gains shown in Appendix Table 2 are calculated as This estimation implies a cumulative welfare savings effect of €3.3B, which is high, and probably a result of the preliminary nature of the study and the constructed nature of the counterfactual and control group. More sophisticated experimental design is needed to precisely estimate the price impacts of the terminal, but the general idea that electricity generation was lower cost due to increased access to LNG seems to be supported. Although this examination is not deeply rigorous, it does underline the economic importance of the Krk terminal for Croatian electricity. Appendix Table 2 Aggregate welfare effects on the Krk LNG terminal Welfare (€ millions) Point estimate (2021–2024) 3283.1 Lower bound (90% confidence interval) 1460.0 Upper bound (90% confidence interval) 5412.7 Welfare (€ millions) Point estimate (2021–2024) 3283.1 Lower bound (90% confidence interval) 1460.0 Upper bound (90% confidence interval) 5412.7 Welfare (€ millions) Welfare (€ millions) Point estimate (2021–2024) 3283.1 Lower bound (90% confidence interval) 1460.0 Upper bound (90% confidence interval) 5412.7 Welfare (€ millions) Point estimate (2021–2024) 3283.1 Lower bound (90% confidence interval) 1460.0 Upper bound (90% confidence interval) 5412.7 Welfare (€ millions) Point estimate (2021–2024) 3283.1 Lower bound (90% confidence interval) 1460.0 Upper bound (90% confidence interval) 5412.7 Welfare (€ millions) Point estimate (2021–2024) Lower bound (90% confidence interval) Upper bound (90% confidence interval) Welfaret = (Pricet counterfactual – Price t observed) x Consumption t
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