92 PERSPECTIVES ON BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS | VOL 44 | 2026 2025). The Krk terminal and Croatia’s position as an energy provider for CEE are critical for Europe’s energy network, especially because Eastern European states are most vulnerable to Russian political maneuvers (Austvik, 2016). The EU complementary strategy of strengthening south–north gas transmission through PCI categorization has also proved effective, spurring LNG terminal construction in Lithuania, Poland, Germany, and Greece (European Commission, n.d.-b). With the Krk terminal as the first in CEE, Croatia has become a net energy exporter for the first time in two decades (Karasalihović Sedlar et al., 2023). Current pipeline projects are estimated to substitute much of Russian gas demand in Serbia and Hungary, the region’s largest Russian importers, and once expansion projects conclude, up to 80% of Krk’s imports will be exported to neighboring countries, including Slovenia, Bosnia, Montenegro, Hungary, and Serbia (European Commission, 2019). The terminal materially increases Croatia’s significance in CEE geopolitics, and, as the EU winds down its own gas production, secure supply routes and international importation will only grow in strategic importance (Austvik, 2016; Kovacevic, 2017). Despite its export position, around 70% of all energy needs in Croatia are imported: nearly all of its natural gas, all coal, and most oil and petroleum products (Croatian Energy Regulatory Agency, 2024); however, nearly 100% of all renewable energy is domestic. Gas accounts for 20% of electricity generation, requiring between 30% and 40% of all gas utilized in Croatia since 2017 (Croatian Energy Regulatory Agency, 2024; Jensen & Meinardi, 2025). US import dependency Since 2021, the US has been the world’s largest LNG exporter, supplying around 70% of Croatia’s LNG imports (China-CEE Institute, 2025; Eurostat, 2026; International Trade Administration, 2025). America is a more reliable partner than Russia, but recent developments in American foreign policy introduce new uncertainties (Donald Trump Answers…, 2026; The Iran War…, 2026). Croatia domestic gas production is limited: The domestically produced share of gas in the energy mix has fallen by 40 percentage points since 2015 as European restrictions on gas exploration have weakened local output (Eurostat, 2026), meaning only 58% of Croatia’s domestic gas consumption could be supplied by domestic production (Eurostat, 2026), despite energy geosecurity frameworks indicating that domestic production is the most secure energy source (Austvik, 2016). If American shipments were cut off, all of Croatia’s export revenue and upwards of a third of its domestic gas supply would be at risk. Increased global tariffs add to the uncertainty. The US diplomatic pressure for American–Croatian LNG cooperation exhibits characteristics of a patron–client dynamic. American diplomatic and financial support accelerated Croatian development, simultaneously advancing US commercial and geopolitical objectives in the region. Croatia benefits from this partnership and from American competition with Russian energy dominance; at the same time, a degree of sovereignty is at risk: Its role as a regional LNG hub, while economically advantageous, positions the country as a conduit for American exports rather than a fully autonomous energy actor and may orient domestic energy policy around external interests. The alignment of American and Croatian energy interests has effectively substituted one import dependency for another, which does not eliminate the fundamental risks of supply reliance. Further, if Croatia succeeds in its export ambitions, American imports will likely come to supply a majority of energy needs across the Balkans, which are considerably more gas reliant than other European markets. The neighboring states that may come to depend on Croatia for energy would then inherit the same structural vulnerabilities. The Krk terminal would not resolve CEE energy insecurity as much as redirect it, substituting Russian dependence for American (Kovacevic, 2017; Smajla et al., 2020). American and EU diplomatic coordination regarding the terminal lends credence to this idea. The combination of limited input from citizens, local environment costs, and positive spillover effects on broader European energy prices suggests that Croatia may be functioning as an energy host for the region. International economic influences to develop LNG infrastructure are not necessarily problematic for Croatia: Simultaneous enforcement of strict climate policy could create paradoxical expectations that are difficult to navigate (Jensen & Meinardi, 2025; Ministry of Economy and Sustainable Development, 2025). Trilemma vertex 2: Affordability Security and national revenue were the primary concerns of the Krk terminal, but the energy trilemma also considers energy affordability. The price of electricity is a useful gauge of the impact of LNG investments on energy affordability, because
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