61 MARTINDALE CENTER FOR THE STUDY OF PRIVATE ENTERPRISE the youngest age group now comprises a smaller proportion of the population than the oldest group. At the same time, the population of 14- to 49-yearold women has continued to shrink since a peak in 2000, the average age of the cohort is rising. Between 2001 and 2021, the average age at first marriage increased from 26.4 to 30.4 years, and the average age at first birth rose from 26.7 to 31.2 years (National Development Council, 2022). These delays in marriage and childbirth not only impact the window in which women can have children but also lower the natural likelihood of pregnancy because of decreased fertility for women over a lifespan (Owen et al., 2024). As the birth rate continues to decline and the population ages, Taiwan is at risk of disruptions in the workforce, economy, and ultimately a fall in GDP (Cheng & Loichinger, 2017). Factors influencing the declining population The declining and aging population stems from multiple factors: low birth rate, restricted access to assisted reproductive technologies, and outdated immigration policies. These underlying causes continue to accelerate the demographic decline. Sociocultural evolution Tension exists between the historically conservative Confucian values of family and women’s desires to participate in the workforce and have a flexible lifestyle (Kim, 2023). Confucianism emphasizes harmony while discouraging individualism, encouraging women to remain in the home caring for the family. Over time, as economic demands increased and more women entered the workforce, ideas of what defined a woman and mother began to shift. Cultural and societal norms in Taiwan, as well as in other East Asian countries, operate predominantly on a male-focused, patriarchal schema (Cheng & Yang, 2021). Prior to an amendment of the Civil Code in 1998, it was mandatory that women move into the family home of their husband once they married. As women continue to gain control in marriage through increased education, professional opportunities, and financial means, the patriarchal model and, in turn, marriage itself are being questioned. Marriage patterns have shifted dramatically with declining rates of marriage and delay of first marriage. According to the National Development Council (2022), the proportion of unmarried women ages 15–49 rose from 40.3% in 2001 to 50.7% in 2023. In addition to this decline, when women do marry, they are doing so at significantly older ages than previous generations. Moreover, married couples who choose to have children increasingly establish independent households rather than following the traditional patrilocal model, reflecting evolving household norms (Cheng & Yang, 2021). Further, Taiwan is experiencing a change in the frequency of both marriage and divorce. Marriages declined significantly, from an average of 7.78 per 1000 people in 1983–2003 to 6.02 per 1000 people by 2003–2023, a 22.6% decrease. Meanwhile, divorces increased 46.2%, from 1.66 to 2.42 per 1000 people during the same periods (Department of Household Registration, 2024). In places like Taiwan, a birth rate that is heavily dependent on the rate of marriage can lead to demographic concerns. Unlike Western countries facing similar low numbers, nonmarital births are low in Taiwan (Cheng, 2023). Only 3.8% of births occur outside of marriage (National Development Council, 2022), encompassing any birth that happens outside of a heterosexual marriage rather than necessarily indicating unplanned pregnancies. By contrast, in other countries, high numbers of nonmarital births offer an alternative pathway for maintaining birth rates as marriage rates decline. Unlike in Taiwan, college-educated women in the US increasingly embrace nonmarital childbearing, with many choosing to have their first child before marrying (Cherlin, 2021). In 2022, 39% of births in the US occurred outside of marriage (National Center for Health Statistics, 2022). Even one of the most socially conservative states in the US, Utah, had a rate of 20.3%, more than five times greater than Taiwan’s (3.8%). The high number of nonmarital births has, in part, helped counteract the reduction in marriage across the US (Cherlin, 2021). A parallel shift may prove impossible in Taiwan if adherence to conservative social norms continues alongside the decrease in marriages. Socially focused research regarding attitudes toward marriage provides additional perspective. In Taiwan, men are holding tight to conservative views on marriage, while women tend to differ (Cheng & Yang, 2021). Researchers found that the general population agrees that marriage does not guarantee a happier life, with this sentiment increasing significantly from 2002 to 2012. Overall, men are still more likely to believe that those married are happier than nonmarried people, while women tend to disagree (Cheng & Yang, 2021). The consensus is that all these changes stem, in part, from increased levels of education among women. In Taiwan, 49.7% of people 15 and over pursued
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