Abstracts

32 of climate change on the food markets, the South African consumer could be hit hard. Urban populations would feel the most drastic effects in food security, considering the added costs associated with transportation of food products from rural communities. As demand increases and supply of food remains stagnant or decreases, prices will increase, and, when other factors like South Africa’s dismal unemployment rate and increased extreme weather–related insurance claims over the past decade are considered, consumers likely will feel the hit of climate change in their purses. Clear metrics exist to tie the effects of various climate risks to the insurance companies. For example, Standard Bank’s insurance division had a 402% increase in storm-related claims in March 2014 after a 48-hour period of severe hailstorms, with hailstones as big as 7 cm in diameter damaging cars, windows, and homes. A South African branch of Aon, a global insurance company, told customers their premiums would increase in response to increasing claims lodged with short-term insurers (Kings, 2014). The Knysna fires in 2017 alone cost the insurance industry R2B (Donnelly, 2019). The increase in weather- related claims is evidence of a growing threat to food production, and any sense of security for farmers could mean rising premiums, a cost potentially passed down to consumers. Smallholder Mitigation and Adaptation The economic stability and the general health of the country are dependent on the ability of small South African farmers to adjust to climate change. This section outlines some important mitigation and adaptation strategies farmers can employ within the two major areas of agriculture: crop production and livestock farming. Crop production strategies include mixed cropping, temperature-timed planting dates, expanded extension services for farmers, and irrigation techniques. Crop Production Climate variability presents a clear threat to crop production. In the Western Cape, the 2016 and 2017 seasons saw drought and heat affect fruit quality, with a decrease in exports of 4.2% (Zwane, 2019). Similar observations were made in vegetable production. The Western Cape government reported a 50% decrease in onions being planted and an 80% decrease in the planting of potatoes because of a lack of water. But if there is any solace, it is in nature itself. Crops that prove resilient to a changing climate will continue to weather the storm. Using climate-adaptable seeds from successful crop breeding has the potential to support the adaptation of crops. Mixed cropping or intercropping, the planting of two different types of crops together in the same field, will help farmers diversify and increase their yields and provide practical information for what works in a country predicted to experience generally hotter and drier conditions. One study that focused on maize- bean intercropping in the Free State region of South Africa found yield and growth advantages in field trials that used this method of intercropping along with increased water use efficiencies (Tsubo et al., 2003). The study, which included three field trials between 1996 and 2001, formally recommended maize- bean intercropping to small-scale farmers in this semiarid region instead of planting maize or beans alone. If the key to sustainable agriculture is increased output per unit of land area, intercropping integrates crops more efficiently, better utilizes soil moisture and nutrients, and takes advantage of such natural ecological processes without the need for human intervention in the form of fertilizer. Greater yield can contribute to the stabilization of household food security. Furthermore, intercropping also reduces the risk for a farmer losing all of a crop with one bad season or weather event. In this way, the farmer is more resilient to potential changes in the climate and is prepared to still produce a harvest and maintain an income. A different study that focused on farmers’ adaptations in sub-Saharan Africa found that in temperate environments like much of South Africa, temperature, not necessarily precipitation, marks the growing season (Waha et al., 2013). One aspect of crop production farmers should consider is planting dates in the face of projected increased seasonal variability