Abstracts

31 Not all of South Africa, of course, will be impacted equally. The DEA report bases much of its information on data collected on precipitation and temperature from dozens of meteorological stations throughout the country. Nationwide, data collected between 1960 and 2003 showed that stations, with few exceptions, reported increases in annual mean temperatures and general increases in hot extremes. The strongest warming has occurred in South Africa’s interior during the autumn months, with a cooling near the country’s coastal regions. For precipitation, the quantity of rainfall is not as much a concern as are seasonal variability and timing. The eastern parts, especially, have been hit with increased extreme precipitation and a relatively high frequency of “very heavy rainfall events” compared to the rest of the country. The report documents heavier summer rainfall as well as lighter autumn and winter rainfall, which magnify seasonal cycles, showing later seasonal rainfall onset and bringing with it increased dry spells and fewer rainy days overall. With past research in mind, projections for South Africa’s future climate patterns round out the picture for the challenges ahead. The Impact of Climate Change on Farmers and the Consumer General circulation models (GCMs), a research strategy used to simulate the response of the global climate system to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, are able to predict the influence of climate change on projected food production levels. These GCMs predict that southern Africa will get drier and that crop yields in most of sub-Saharan Africa will decline by 10% to 20% by 2050 (Connolly-Boutin & Smit, 2016). Although this GCM prediction might come as no surprise to South African farmers who are experiencing such trends, many are unsure of how best to prepare. Bryan and colleagues wrote in 2009 that in South Africa and Ethiopia, “farmers have noticed increases in temperature and a decrease in rainfall” and yet “a large proportion of the farmers…did not undertake any adaptive measures.” South African farmers named a lack of access to credit as a main barrier to adaptation. And when farmers have attempted to shift from cropping to livestock management to circumvent a lack of rainfall, a reduction in adequate grazing space ensued, resulting in another challenge for farmers looking for ways to navigate growth in an ever-limited environment (Thomas et al., 2007). Ziervogel and Ericksen (2010) predict that one response to the rain declines will be increased average annual irrigation demand on the order of 4% to 6%. The DEA followed up on its aforementioned 2012 report with a third national climate change report in 2017. The report specifically noted the impact climate change already is having on agriculture, citing “reduction of yield in the maize crop under higher temperatures and reduced soil moisture,” increases in livestock mortality due to “oppressive temperatures,” and issues with water security resulting from “reduced rainfall and enhanced evapotranspiration” (DEA, 2017, p. 17). As of 2015, South Africa’s population is expected to increase by at least 10 million people by 2030, a growth rate predicted to outpace crop production (“Here’s how…”, 2019; Masipa, 2017). South Africa generally is a food secure country at the national level, but the same cannot be said at the household level, where a majority of rural populations rely on agriculture for their livelihoods and are most vulnerable to climate change (Kirkland et al., 2013). In 2018, one-third of all South Africans lived in rural areas, with a majority of those in poverty residing in rural parts of the country (Abdu-Raheem & Worth, 2011). The decline in arable land since 2001, combined with the projected population growth in South Africa, brings to light an alarming realization: there just may not be enough land in this era of global warming and drier conditions to produce the amount of food needed to fuel a heathy and prosperous nation (Masipa, 2017). In short, the time-honored strategies and techniques of South African farmers may not stand the test of such volatile climactic conditions. The normal periods in which rainfall can be expected and the anticipatory cycles of growth no longer may be able to be relied on; instead, crops with shorter growing seasons and those requiring less water may become preferred. Without adaptation measures in place to prepare for the impacts