The Problem Influenza leads to an average of 425,000 hospitalizations and 32,000 deaths annually in the U.S. Public health officials need more accurate, real-time and forward-looking forecasts to prepare for outbreaks. Existing surveillance and modeling approaches often fall short. This project evaluates whether combining expert judgment with participatory modeling can capture behavioral dynamics and improve disease forecast accuracy. The Approach To address these challenges, this project will: Partner with public health officials, epidemiologists and clinicians to study decision-making and behavioral dynamics around seasonal influenza. Collect qualitative data, surveys and temporal probabilistic density forecasts from participants. Develop DECISIONCAST: the first platform to capture expert-generated probabilistic trajectories of key influenza indicators. Improving Flu Forecasts with a User-Driven Prediction Platform “The forecasting and modeling community is a close-knit group of people who are passionate about improving public health associated with influenza. It is important to me that I use my skills and training in applied mathematics and statistics to improve the health of others.” Thomas McAndrew, PhD Short Term Impact Participants will improve forecasting by blending human judgment with computational models. Their input will produce more accurate influenza hospitalization forecasts. Longer Term Impact DECISIONCAST produces forecasts matching existing model accuracy and delivers tailored insights to support public health decisions. Societal Impact Funding will support DECISIONCAST, a platform that integrates surveillance data and expert judgment to improve influenza forecasting. By combining real-time data with human insights, it enhances the accuracy and supports evidencebased public health decisions. The project offers societal benefits in the following areas: For more information visit https://health.lehigh.edu/research-partners or email INRSRCH@lehigh.edu 23 Community/Culture: Advance population health by creating more accurate epidemic forecasting tools. Policy: Public health policymakers can make rapid decisions to lessen epidemic impacts. Education: DECISIONCAST educates public health on producing and combining forecasts into one.
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